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John List is over there. Steve Levitt is a very unusual type of economist.

Subprime Loan Crisis of 2008, Global financial crisis & its impact on India, Current Affairs 2018

I spoke to Becker. His view is that what remains distinctive about Chicago is its degree of skepticism toward the government. I think that is just rational behavior. Revenues have to cover costs—the government is not subject to that constraint. I think it is inevitable, if you accept the view that the government will bail out the biggest firms if they get into trouble. Private companies are very good at inventing ways around the regulations. They will find ways to do things that are in the letter of the regulations but not in the spirit. You are not going to be able to attract the best people to be regulators.

That sounds like an old-fashioned Chicago argument—skepticism about regulation. We have Ragu Rajan , Doug Diamond—they are as good banking people as there are in the world. I have been listening to them for six months, and I would not trust them to write the regulations. In the end, there is so much uncertainty, and so much depends on how people will react to certain things that nobody knows what good regulation would be at this point. That is what is scary about government bailouts of big institutions.

So what should we do? What should we do? I think that what is going on in health care could end up being more important. Making the problem more widespread is not going to solve it. When all this the financial crisis started, I joined the debate. Let me sit back and listen to people. So I listened to all the experts, local and otherwise.

So I went back and started doing my own research. Right, but is that credible? Government pledged, in any case, have little credibility. Will there be big changes? Which way is it going to go? I used to do macroeconomics, but I gave it up long ago. Back to the efficient markets hypothesis. You said earlier that it comes out of this episode pretty well. Others say the market may be good at pricing in a relative sense—one stock versus another—but it is very bad at setting absolute prices, the level of the market as a whole.

What do you say to that? People say that. If they know, they should be rich men. What better way to make money than to know exactly about the absolute level of prices.


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So you still think that the market is highly efficient at the overall level too? No matter what research gets done, that one always looks good. What about the findings that long periods of high returns are followed by long periods of low returns? Now, there is no evidence of that The expected return on stocks is just a price—the price people require to bear the market risk.

Like any price, it should vary from time to time, and maybe it should vary in predictable ways. The problem is that, almost surely, expected returns vary through time because of risk aversion—wealth, everything else varies through time.

Interview with Eugene Fama | The New Yorker

But measuring that requires that you have a good variable for tracking risk aversion or good models for tracking it. The way that people do it, including me, is by using kind of ad hoc variables to pick it up. When that happens, you know that none of the results are very reliable. Has the advance of all this behavioral stuff, behavioral finance, made you rethink anything?

Yes, sure. That branch of it has been incredibly useful. That line of research has survived the market test. More people are getting into it. But you are skeptical about the claims about how irrationality affects market prices? Thanks very much. What did you think of it? Laughs My attitude is this: if you are getting attacked by Krugman, you must be doing something right.

They have to be predictable phenomena. Laughs Well, what does it take? So what is your explanation of what happened? But surely the start of the credit crisis predated the recession? What was really unusual was the worldwide fall in real estate prices. But what is driving that volatility? And all that is consistent with market efficiency? It is exactly how you would expect the market to work. There were some people out there saying this was an unsustainable bubble… Right.

For example, Robert Shiller was saying that since Yes, but he also said in and that this was a housing bubble. Lots of it. Typical research came to a halt. Everybody got involved. In a healthy economy, private sector savings placed into the banking system is borrowed and invested by companies. This investment is one of the major components of GDP. Part of this investment reduction related to the housing market, a major component of investment in the GDP computation. This surplus explains how even significant government deficit spending would not increase interest rates and how Federal Reserve action to increase the money supply does not result in inflation, because the economy is awash with savings with no place to go.

Economist Richard Koo described similar effects for several of the developed world economies in December "Today private sectors in the U. This means these countries are all in serious balance sheet recessions. The private sectors in Japan and Germany are not borrowing, either. With borrowers disappearing and banks reluctant to lend, it is no wonder that, after nearly three years of record low interest rates and massive liquidity injections, industrial economies are still doing so poorly.

Flow of funds data for the U. The shift for the private sector as a whole represents over 9 percent of U.


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  5. GDP at a time of zero interest rates. Moreover, this increase in private sector savings exceeds the increase in government borrowings 5. Economist Wynne Godley explained in how U. The combination of a high and growing foreign sector surplus and high government sector deficit meant that the private sector was moving towards a net borrowing position from surplus to deficit as a housing bubble developed, which he warned was an unsustainable combination.

    Economist Martin Wolf explained in July that government fiscal balance is one of three major financial sectoral balances in the U. The sum of the surpluses or deficits across these three sectors must be zero by definition. In the U. Further, there is a private sector financial surplus due to household savings exceeding business investment. By definition, there must therefore exist a government budget deficit so all three net to zero. The government sector includes federal, state and local.

    Wolf argued that the sudden shift in the private sector from deficit to surplus forced the government balance into deficit, writing: "The financial balance of the private sector shifted towards surplus by the almost unbelievable cumulative total of No fiscal policy changes explain the collapse into massive fiscal deficit between and , because there was none of any importance. The collapse is explained by the massive shift of the private sector from financial deficit into surplus or, in other words, from boom to bust.

    Various actions have been taken since the crisis became apparent in August In September , major instability in world financial markets increased awareness and attention to the crisis. Various agencies and regulators, as well as political officials, began to take additional, more comprehensive steps to handle the crisis.

    To date, various government agencies have committed or spent trillions of dollars in loans, asset purchases, guarantees, and direct spending. For a summary of U. The central bank of the US, the Federal Reserve , in partnership with central banks around the world, took several steps to address the crisis. According to Ben Bernanke , expansion of the Fed balance sheet means the Fed is electronically creating money, necessary "because our economy is very weak and inflation is very low.

    When the economy begins to recover, that will be the time that we need to unwind those programs, raise interest rates, reduce the money supply, and make sure that we have a recovery that does not involve inflation. It plans to hold short-term interest rates near zero even longer, at least until the unemployment rate falls below 6. On 13 February , President George W. However, this rebate coincided with an unexpected jump in gasoline and food prices. This coincidence led some to wonder whether the stimulus package would have the intended effect, or whether consumers would simply spend their rebates to cover higher food and fuel prices.

    On 17 February , U. This program is referred to as the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. Losses on mortgage-backed securities and other assets purchased with borrowed money have dramatically reduced the capital base of financial institutions, rendering many either insolvent or less capable of lending. Governments have provided funds to banks. Some banks have taken significant steps to acquire additional capital from private sources.

    Another method of recapitalizing banks is for government and private investors to provide cash in exchange for mortgage-related assets i. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced a plan during March to purchase "legacy" or "toxic" assets from banks. The Public-Private Partnership Investment Program involves government loans and guarantees to encourage private investors to provide funds to purchase toxic assets from banks. Some elements of TARP such as foreclosure prevention aid will not be paid back.

    Several major financial institutions either failed, were bailed out by governments, or merged voluntarily or otherwise during the crisis. While the specific circumstances varied, in general the decline in the value of mortgage-backed securities held by these companies resulted in either their insolvency , the equivalent of bank runs as investors pulled funds from them, or inability to secure new funding in the credit markets.

    These firms had typically borrowed and invested large sums of money relative to their cash or equity capital, meaning they were highly leveraged and vulnerable to unanticipated credit market disruptions. The five largest U. Major depository banks around the world had also used financial innovations such as structured investment vehicles to circumvent capital ratio regulations. Dozens of U. As a result of the financial crisis in , twenty-five U.

    According to some, the bailouts could be traced directly to Alan Greenspan's efforts to reflate the stock market and the economy after the tech stock bust, and specifically to a February 23, speech Mr. Greenspan made to the Mortgage Bankers Association where he suggested that the time had come to push average American borrowers into more exotic loans with variable rates, or deferred interest. Greenspan sought to enlist banks to expand lending and debt to stimulate asset prices and that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Department would back any losses that might result. Both lenders and borrowers may benefit from avoiding foreclosure, which is a costly and lengthy process.

    Some lenders have offered troubled borrowers more favorable mortgage terms e. Borrowers have also been encouraged to contact their lenders to discuss alternatives. The Economist described the issue this way in February "No part of the financial crisis has received so much attention, with so little to show for it, as the tidal wave of home foreclosures sweeping over America. Government programmes have been ineffectual, and private efforts not much better. A variety of voluntary private and government-administered or supported programs were implemented during — to assist homeowners with case-by-case mortgage assistance, to mitigate the foreclosure crisis engulfing the U.

    One example is the Hope Now Alliance , an ongoing collaborative effort between the US Government and private industry to help certain subprime borrowers. A spokesperson for the Alliance acknowledged that much more must be done. During late , major banks and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac established moratoriums delays on foreclosures, to give homeowners time to work towards refinancing.

    FDIC reported that more than half of mortgages modified during the first half of were delinquent again, in many cases because payments were not reduced or mortgage debt was not forgiven. This is further evidence that case-by-case loan modification is not effective as a policy tool. Lowering the mortgage balance would help lower monthly payments and also address an estimated 20 million homeowners that may have a financial incentive to enter voluntary foreclosure because they are "underwater" i. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston indicated that banks were reluctant to modify loans.

    In addition, investors who hold MBS and have a say in mortgage modifications have not been a significant impediment; the study found no difference in the rate of assistance whether the loans were controlled by the bank or by investors. Commenting on the study, economists Dean Baker and Paul Willen both advocated providing funds directly to homeowners instead of banks. Such strategic defaults were heavily concentrated in markets with the highest price declines. An estimated , strategic defaults occurred nationwide during , more than double the total in On 18 February , U.

    It uses cost sharing and incentives to encourage lenders to reduce homeowner's monthly payments to 31 percent of their monthly income. Under the program, a lender would be responsible for reducing monthly payments to no more than 38 percent of a borrower's income, with government sharing the cost to further cut the rate to 31 percent. The plan also involves forgiving a portion of the borrower's mortgage balance. Companies that service mortgages will get incentives to modify loans and to help the homeowner stay current. Untold thousands of people have complained in recent years that they were subjected to a nightmare experience of lost paperwork, misapplied fees and Kafkaesque phone calls with clueless customer service representatives as they strived to avoid foreclosures they say were preventable.

    These claims are backed up by a swelling number of academic studies and insider accounts of misconduct and abuse. Now it's becoming clear just how chaotic the whole system became. Depositions from employees working for the banks or their law firms depict a foreclosure process in which it was standard practice for employees with virtually no training to masquerade as vice presidents, sometimes signing documents on behalf of as many as 15 different banks. Together, the banks and their law firms created a quick-and-dirty foreclosure machine that was designed to rush through foreclosures as fast as possible.

    President Barack Obama and key advisers introduced a series of regulatory proposals in June The proposals address consumer protection, executive pay, bank financial cushions or capital requirements, expanded regulation of the shadow banking system and derivatives , and enhanced authority for the Federal Reserve to safely wind-down systemically important institutions, among others.

    His testimony included five elements he stated as critical to effective reform:. The Dodd-Frank Act addressed these elements, but stopped short of breaking up the largest banks, which grew larger due to mergers of investment banks at the core of the crisis with depository banks e.

    Janet Yellen: What the Fed Has Learned Since the Financial Crisis

    Assets of five largest banks as a share of total commercial banking assets rose then stabilized in the wake of the crisis. These were separated prior to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. Significant law enforcement action and litigation resulted from the crisis. Several hundred civil lawsuits were filed in federal courts beginning in related to the subprime crisis. The number of filings in state courts was not quantified but was also believed to be significant. The deal with the U. Justice Department topped a deal the regulator made the previous year with JPMorgan Chase over similar issues.

    The Economist estimated that from through October , U. Attorney's offices, and state and local partners. One of its eight working groups, the Residential Mortgage Backed Securities RMBS Working Group, was created in and is involved in investigating and negotiating many of the fines and penalties described above. Several books written about the crisis were made into movies. The former tells the story from the perspective of several investors who bet against the housing market, while the latter follows key government and banking officials focusing on the critical events of September , when many large financial institutions faced or experienced collapse.

    Estimates of impact have continued to climb. Francis Fukuyama has argued that the crisis represents the end of Reaganism in the financial sector, which was characterized by lighter regulation, pared-back government, and lower taxes. Significant financial sector regulatory changes are expected as a result of the crisis. Fareed Zakaria believes that the crisis may force Americans and their government to live within their means. Further, some of the best minds may be redeployed from financial engineering to more valuable business activities, or to science and technology.

    Roger Altman wrote that "the crash of has inflicted profound damage on [the U. Over the medium term, the United States will have to operate from a smaller global platform — while others, especially China, will have a chance to rise faster. America must regain its competitiveness through innovative products, training of production workers, and business leadership. He advocates specific national goals related to energy security or independence, specific technologies, expansion of the manufacturing job base, and net exporter status.

    Now we must lead an aggressive American renewal to win in the future. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in "The prosperity of a few years ago, such as it was — profits were terrific, wages not so much — depended on a huge bubble in housing, which replaced an earlier huge bubble in stocks. And since the housing bubble isn't coming back, the spending that sustained the economy in the pre-crisis years isn't coming back either.

    These commitments can be characterized as investments, loans, and loan guarantees, rather than direct expenditures.


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    In many cases, the government purchased financial assets such as commercial paper, mortgage-backed securities, or other types of asset-backed paper, to enhance liquidity in frozen markets. The Economist wrote in May "Having spent a fortune bailing out their banks, Western governments will have to pay a price in terms of higher taxes to meet the interest on that debt. In the case of countries like Britain and America that have trade as well as budget deficits, those higher taxes will be needed to meet the claims of foreign creditors. Given the political implications of such austerity, the temptation will be to default by stealth, by letting their currencies depreciate.

    Investors are increasingly alive to this danger Senator Chris Dodd claimed that Greenspan created the " perfect storm ". The current credit crisis will come to an end when the overhang of inventories of newly built homes is largely liquidated, and home price deflation comes to an end. That will stabilize the now-uncertain value of the home equity that acts as a buffer for all home mortgages, but most importantly for those held as collateral for residential mortgage-backed securities. Very large losses will, no doubt, be taken as a consequence of the crisis.

    But after a period of protracted adjustment, the U. Following the recession of the era, there became a bigger focus from Millennials on mortgages the effect they have on their personal finances. Most who were of working age were unable to find employment that would allow them to save enough for a house.

    The lack of good employment opportunities has created questions among this generation about how much of their lives that they are willing to invest into a home and if that money isn't better spent elsewhere. Mortgage Magnitude [] looks at how many years of life a mortgage will actually cost a consumer given the area's median income and median home value, showing homes in metropolitan areas ranging from ratios of to Donna Fancher researched to find if the " American Dream " of owning a home is still a realistic goal, or if it is continually shrinking for the youth of the US, writing:.

    In many markets, prospective buyers are continuing to rent due to concerns over affordability. However, demand also increases rent disproportionately. While housing prices fell dramatically during the recession, prices have been steadily coming back to pre-recession prices; with a rising interest rate , home ownership could continue to be challenging for Millennials.

    Jason Furman wrote:. The recession officially ended in the second quarter of , [] but the nation's economy continued to be described as in an " economic malaise " during the second quarter of Household incomes , as of August , had fallen more since the end of the recession, than during the month recession, falling an additional 4. However, the Great Recession was different in kind from the all the recessions since the Great Depression, as it also involved a banking crisis and the de-leveraging debt reduction of highly indebted households.

    Then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke explained during November several of the economic headwinds that slowed the recovery:. For example, U. This reduced real GDP growth by approximately 0. Several key economic variables e. The gains were more evenly distributed after the tax increases in on higher-income earners. President Obama declared the bailout measures started under the Bush Administration and continued during his Administration as completed and mostly profitable as of December From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

    Part of a series on The Great Recession. Major aspects. Causes of the European debt crisis Causes of the United States housing bubble Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis Government policies and the subprime mortgage crisis. Summit meetings. Government response and policy proposals. Business failures.

    A new kind of run on the bank

    Main articles: Subprime crisis background information , Subprime crisis impact timeline , United States housing bubble , and United States housing market correction. Further information: Causes of the — global financial crisis and Causes of the United States housing bubble. Main articles: United States housing bubble and United States housing market correction. Main article: Speculation. Further information: Securitization and Mortgage-backed security. Main article: Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis.

    Main article: Government policies and the subprime mortgage crisis.

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    Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief. Widespread as this belief has become in conservative circles, virtually all serious attempts to evaluate the evidence have concluded that there is little merit in this view. Main article: Fair value accounting and the subprime mortgage crisis. Further information: List of writedowns due to subprime crisis. Further information: Indirect economic effects of the subprime mortgage crisis.

    Main article: Financial crisis of — Further information: European sovereign-debt crisis and Austerity. Main article: Sectoral financial balances. Further information: Subprime mortgage crisis solutions debate. Main article: Federal Reserve responses to the subprime crisis. Main article: Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of See also: United Kingdom bank rescue package. Further information: List of bankrupt or acquired banks during the financial crisis of — , Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , National City acquisition by PNC , Government intervention during the subprime mortgage crisis , and Bailout.

    Main article: Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan. Further information: Subprime mortgage crisis solutions debate and Regulatory responses to the subprime crisis. This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. May Play media. Business and economics portal Banks portal. Bank of Minneapolis v. First of Omaha Service Corp. Nationalisation of Northern Rock Ownership society Real estate bubble Panic of Panic of Predatory lending Savings and loan crisis of the late s.

    Securitization Shadow banking system Subprime mortgage crisis solutions debate Toxic security Troubled Assets Relief Program United States housing bubble White collar crime Other housing bubbles [ edit ] Indian property bubble Irish property bubble Japanese asset price bubble Spanish property bubble Swedish banking rescue United Kingdom housing bubble.

    Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve History. Federal Reserve. Retrieved May 15, The expansion of mortgages to high-risk borrowers, coupled with rising house prices, contributed to a period of turmoil in financial markets that lasted from to House of Debt. University of Chicago. Financial Shock. FT Press.

    The financial crisis flared in an era of invisible high risk. Has the system been reformed?

    Retrieved 5 October The Economist. Retrieved Retrieved 17 November Bill Moyers Journal. Transcript 29 June Wall Street Journal. The New York Times. American Bankruptcy Law Journal, Vol. Archived from the original on Jaffee Archived from the original PDF on In Tomasz R. Bielecki; Christophette Blanchet-Scalliet ed. The New York Review of Books. Retrieved 5 October — via www. July The Housing Boom and Bust. Basic Books. Retrieved 19 May The Great Stagnation. December Census Bureau. Archived from the original PDF on 16 February The Globe and Mail.

    New York Times. City Journal 29 October USA Today. June 15, March 14, Working Paper Series. Social Science Electronic Publishing. Retrieved 8 September But Then Again. Associated Press. Bernanke The Subprime Mortgage Market Speech. San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved April 8, Mortgage Bankers Association. Washington, D. Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Speech.

    Federal Reserve System, Release Z. Table L. NY Post. Retrieved 5 October — via LA Times. New York Review of Books. Retrieved 20 November The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of Norton Company Limited. Retrieved 5 October — via Reuters. Retrieved 5 October — via The Economist. All the Devils Are Here. Portfolio, Penguin. After the REMIC battle, [whatever that was] Wall Street realized it was never going to dislodge Fannie and Freddie from their dominant position as the securitizers of traditional mortgages.

    Wall Street would have to find some other mortgage product to securitize, products that Fannie and Feddie couldn't — or wouldn't — touch. Review of Financial Studies. January 31, Claremont Institute. Archived from the original on 24 December Retrieved 30 September Most home mortgages were relatively safe investments, and Fannie and Freddie's lending standards were conservative.

    Private lenders, therefore, were left with both the larger and the riskier mortgages, all of which were called "non-conforming" loans because they didn't fit the GSEs' criteria. The GSEs seemed to have a lock on the "conforming" market, the bigger, safer part of the mortgage business. Securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also guarantee Although their guarantee doesn't carry the weight of the U.

    Their mortgage-backed securities are considered to be the equivalent of AAA-rated corporate bonds. They have never defaulted on a mortgage-backed security. The original bonds Ratings arbitrage, Wall Street called this practice. A more accurate term would have been ratings laundering. They bear a lower credit rating triple B. This is what Goldman Sachs had cleverly done. It was absurd. The buildings occupied the same floodplain; in the event of flood, the ground floors of all of them were equally exposed. CDO-squared deals — those engineered primarily from the tranches of other CDOs — grew from 36 marketwide in to 48 in and 41 All the Devils Are Here , p.

    The Atlas Society. In the post-war period, falling home prices were rare. From to , nominal home prices never fell on the national level, at least not significantly. Some argue that there was a drop of 1 percent in and ; there were regional drops such as in California in the early s. Consequently, models used to price mortgage portfolios under-weighted scenarios with large price declines.

    Claremont Review of Books. XII 1 : The mortgage debacle, A broad underestimation of risk rested on self-serving assumptions. It was, for example, widely assumed that home prices would always rise, meaning that if borrowers defaulted lenders would be protected against heavy losses. Credit default swaps were often compared to insurance: the seller was described as insuring against a default in the underlying asset.

    However, while similar to insurance, CDS escaped regulation by state insurance supervisors because they were treated as deregulated OTC derivatives. This made CDS very different from insurance in at least two important respects. First, only a person with an insurable interest can obtain an insurance policy. A car owner can insure only the car she owns — not her neighbor's.

    But a CDS purchaser can use it to speculate on the default of a loan the purchaser does not own. These are often called "naked credit default swaps" and can inflate potential losses and corresponding gains on the default of a loan or institution. Before the CFMA was passed, there was uncertainty about whether or not state insurance regulators had authority over credit default swaps.

    In addition, when an insurance company sells a policy, insurance regulators require that it put aside reserves in case of a loss. In the housing boom, CDS were sold by firms that failed to put up any reserves or initial collateral or to hedge their exposure. In the run-up to the crisis, AIG, the largest U.

    The Fed could repeat such sanctions in the future since that is part of its tools to ensure adequate risk management. As for cryptocurrencies, Yellen said the Fed has looked at the possibility of creating its own digital currency. It could lead to very far-reaching changes in the structure of financial intermediation in the U. Asked about the impact of the proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum , Yellen said the Fed stays away from giving advice on fiscal policy.

    However, trade policy does affect the economy. After leaving the Fed, Yellen headed for the Brookings Institution in Washington where she is the new distinguished fellow in residence at the think tank. Yellen said she used to have a security detail following her around. Her path to the top of the Federal Reserve started with an interest in economics early on. After taking a class in economics while at Brown University, she was hooked. Throughout her career, Yellen was often one of very few women in economics. Indeed, she is the first female chair of the Federal Reserve.

    Did she face discrimination? Besides barriers to advancement, perhaps women could not find enough role models in economics to encourage them to seek those jobs. That must change. Can data analytics improve private equity decision-making? Investment experts weighed in at a recent Wharton Customer Analytics conference. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel interviews Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago about his new book on the dangerous weakness of communities -- the foundation for markets and democracy -- as well as India, China and a host of.

    Globalization is not just for manufacturers.